Oil supply limits and the continuing financial crisis
Science Direct / Gail E. Tverberg / Volume 37, Issue 1, January 2012
Since 2005, (1) world oil supply has not increased, and (2) the world has undergone its most severe economic crisis since the Depression. In this paper, logical arguments and direct evidence are presented suggesting that a reduction in oil supply can be expected to reduce the ability of economies to use debt for leverage. The expected impact of reduced oil supply combined with this reduced leverage is similar to the actual impact of the 2008–2009 recession in OECD countries. If world oil supply should continue to remain generally flat, there appears to be a significant possibility that oil consumption in OECD countries will continue to decline, as emerging markets consume a greater share of the total oil that is available. If this should happen, based on these findings we can expect a continuing financial crisis similar to the 2008–2009 recession including significant debt defaults. The financial crisis may eventually worsen, to resemble a collapse situation as described by Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies (1990) or an adverse decline situation similar to adverse scenarios foreseen by Donella Meadows in Limits to Growth (1972).
Cut Cost, Not Quality: How to Afford Better Food
Mother Earth News / Tabitha Alterman / December 2011/January 2012
There’s growing evidence that industrial food just ain’t what it oughta be. Lucky for us, the path to super-nutritious food at affordable prices offers many entry points. We’ll pilot you through the diverse options in this guide to shopping smart and eating better food.
Researchers Argue Peak Oil Is Here, Bringing Permanent Volatility
Wired / John Timmer / 26 January 2012
“If oil production can’t grow, the implication is that the economy can’t grow either,” the authors write. “This is such a frightening prospect that many have simply avoided considering it.”
And it’s not just oil that poses problems. U.S. coal production peaked in 2002, and the global peak has been predicted to hit as soon as 2025. The last time global coal reserves were evaluated, in 2005, the total was cut by more than half compared to previous estimates. Fracking has boosted the production of natural gas dramatically, but even here the authors find reasons for concern. Recent reports suggest shale gas reserves have been overestimated, and many fields that have been in production awhile have experienced large declines in production.
The commentary concludes that we simply can’t rely on any fossil fuel to provide a stable and economic source of energy for more than a couple of decades. And, given the economic shocks that result from rapid changes in energy prices, that’s a serious problem.
“Economists and politicians continually debate policies that will lead to a return to economic growth,” the authors note. “But because they have failed to recognize that the high price of energy is a central problem, they haven’t identified the necessary solution: weaning society off fossil fuel.”
This weaning will require a large deployment of efficiency measures, nuclear power and renewable energy sources. This will take time, which is why efforts need to be started now, the authors argue. (Not mentioned, but equally true, is the probability that taking these measures will smooth out the impact of reaching peak fossil fuel production.) Unfortunately, since most governments are unwilling to admit the prospect of indefinite economic stagnation due to our reliance on fossil fuels, they’ve been unable to generate the political will to even begin these efforts. Murray and King clearly hope their commentary will help get the ball rolling.
Climate Preparedness Planning in Boulder, CO
Daily Camera / Laura Snider / 22 January 2012
Boulder-based Stratus has finished a draft "climate change preparedness plan" for Boulder County and the city of Boulder, which outlines the possible impacts of a warming globe to the area's emergency management, public health, agriculture and natural resources, as well as water supply.
"Water is a huge issue, but we need to look at it from areas on a broader scale," said county spokesman Dan Rowland. "There hasn't been a systematic look at what some of the vulnerabilities are, and we wanted to look at that."
Renew Newcastle shows how to create a people magnet
Toronto Star / Catherine Porter / 20 January 2012
Newcastle is an Australian steel town an hour and a half north of Sydney. Last year, Lonely Planet named it one of the Top 10 cities to visit in the world, along with New York and Delhi, citing its great cafes, artist culture and surf.
What makes that amazing is that three years ago Newcastle was a ghost town. Or at least its downtown was, with 150 boarded-up buildings dotting its two main drags. You went there to get mugged.
Was it a new urban plan, an aggressive business improvement association? Or today’s version of a gold rush — four Starbucks?
Nope. It was Marcus Westbury, a festival director with a deep love for his hometown and a really good idea.
His idea: borrow the empty storefronts from their owners and fill them with artists, designers, fledgling food cooperatives. By borrow, he meant occupy them for free. Clearly artists and creators would love a crack at turning their dreams into a business. What about the property owners?
“They weren’t that hard to convince,” Westbury told me over Skype from Australia. “They’ve seen an enormous amount of benefit. We now have a national program, and property owners are paying us to take over their spaces.”
Town Aims For Total Food Self-Sufficiency Within 7 Years
Daily Mail (UK) / Vincent Graff / 10 December 2012
Outside the police station in the small Victorian mill town of Todmorden, West Yorkshire, there are three large raised flower beds.
If you’d visited a few months ago, you’d have found them overflowing with curly kale, carrot plants, lettuces, spring onions — all manner of vegetables and salad leaves.
Today the beds are bare. Why? Because people have been wandering up to the police station forecourt in broad daylight and digging up the vegetables. And what are the cops doing about this brazen theft from right under their noses? Nothing.
Well, that’s not quite correct.
‘I watch ’em on camera as they come up and pick them,’ says desk officer Janet Scott, with a huge grin. It’s the smile that explains everything.
For the vegetable-swipers are not thieves. The police station carrots — and thousands of vegetables in 70 large beds around the town — are there for the taking. Locals are encouraged to help themselves. A few tomatoes here, a handful of broccoli there. If they’re in season, they’re yours. Free.
So there are (or were) raspberries, apricots and apples on the canal towpath; blackcurrants, redcurrants and strawberries beside the doctor’s surgery; beans and peas outside the college; cherries in the supermarket car park; and mint, rosemary, thyme and fennel by the health centre.
Climate change invites alien invaders – Is Canada ready?
NRC Research Press / Press Release / 19 January 2012
A comprehensive multi-disciplinary synthesis just published in Environmental Reviews reveals the urgent need for further investigation and policy development to address significant environmental, social and economic impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) and climate change. “Effects of climate change on the distribution of invasive alien species in Canada: a knowledge synthesis of range change prediction in a warming world” is the collaborative effort of a team of dedicated researchers at York University’s Institute for Research and Innovation in Sustainability (IRIS).
“Many species’ distributions are already changing in response to a warming climate, and ecosystems are predicted to become more vulnerable to invasive species as climatic barriers are eliminated,“ says author Dr. Andrea Smith, IRIS Senior Fellow, currently conducting a legislative review of invasive species policy in Canada for the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and the Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network. “The interactive effects of climate change and invasive species are expected to have profound consequences for environments, economies and societies worldwide. For example, many new infectious diseases will likely spread to the Arctic, and coordinated circumpolar disease monitoring and targeted healthcare planning will be needed to handle this new pressure. Yet, these two drivers of global change are rarely considered jointly in policy and management initiatives.”
